Monetary union has left half of Europe trapped in depression

Events are moving fast in Europe. The worst riots since the fall of Communism have swept the Baltics and the south Balkans. An incipient crisis is taking shape in the Club Med bond markets. S&P has cut Greek debt to near junk. Spanish, Portuguese, and Irish bonds are on negative watch.

Dublin has nationalised Anglo Irish Bank with its half-built folly on North Wall Quay and €73bn (£65bn) of liabilities, moving a step nearer the line where markets probe the solvency of the Irish state.

A great ring of EU states stretching from Eastern Europe down across Mare Nostrum to the Celtic fringe are either in a 1930s depression already or soon will be. Greece’s social fabric is unravelling before the pain begins, which bodes ill.

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The Kosovo precedent

Amid the kerfuffle around Kosovo’s declaration of
independence, few have paused to note what an
extraordinary document it is. It is so hedged with
conditions, obligations and reservations, so replete
with commitments to consult, honor and obey the
province’s international patrons, that it is also a
declaration of dependence.

Its last paragraph begins: “We hereby affirm, clearly, specifically and irrevocably, that Kosovo shall be legally bound to comply with the provisions contained in this declaration, including, especially, the obligations for it under the Ahtisaari Plan” (my italics; that’s U.N. Special Envoy Martii Ahtisaari). You can almost hear the Western advisor dictating over the Kosovar draftsman’s shoulder.

The reality on the ground will, of course, be rather different from the words on paper. The Kosovar Albanians have taken an important stride toward self-government. On Sunday night, they had something to celebrate on the streets of Pristina.

I would not like to be a Kosovar Serb living in one of the enclaves south of the Ibar River in the years ahead. The position of the Serbs north of the Mitrovica bridge over the Ibar is a different story. Despite NATO’s temporary closing of the border between them and Serbia, their daily social, economic and cultural integration with Serbia will continue.

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